Monday, October 24, 2005

Why Hillary Will Never Be President

It’s not because she’s a woman. It’s not because she’s a Democrat. It’s not even because she’s Hillary.

It’s the war.

“Hillary Rodham Clinton is a chickenhawk who knows nothing about national security,” said Scott Ritter on C-SPAN2 Book TV, discussing his new book: Iraq Confidential. He went on: “ …Indeed, that is a problem of the entire Democratic Party. The next top figure in the Democratic Party that stands up in opposition to the war will have a real chance at the nomination."

If the Republicans are split over the budget deficit and the Miers nomination, Democrats are split over the war in Iraq. Fear stalks the political landscape. The elected Repubs are quaking in fear of indictments. The elected Dems are terrified to hammer out and articulate a positive platform that goes beyond mere opposition.

This past weekend, the chatterati TV programs provided stark evidence of the Great Democratic Divide, exposing the strike-slip fault lines of progressive topography with silent tectonics as hawks grate against doves.

The Dem hawks are the unrepentant politicians who voted for the war. For example, on NBC’s Meet the Press, Senator Charles Schumer (D-NY) said that, even given what he knows now, he would still cast a vote to allow the President to attack and invade Iraq.

The Dem doves are the little people and their champions like Howard Dean. On a recent appearance on the political talker, Hardball, Dean reprised his long-held anti-war position: “I thought this [the war in Iraq] was a bad idea in the first place because I believed we would get in just the kind of mess we have…It’s not responsible to take our troops out tomorrow, but we need to get our troops out of there and we need to do it in a reasonable way and not lose any more lives.”

The hawks control the political agenda, maintaining hardened positions that are reinforced by party elders. According to Seymour Hersh, speaking on the C-SPAN2 program with Scott Ritter, there was a secret, as-yet-unreported meeting attended by Madeline Albright and other old party hands in Washington DC last week. They considered how the party should address the nation’s challenges and ultimately counseled a do-nothing strategy on the sidelines so as not to take the spotlight away from the Republicans implosion.

But the doves control the party apparatus and the grass roots. They won’t mean much until the 2006 mid-terms when they will be needed to walk the precincts, handle the phone banks, send the emails, drive the voters to the polls and carry out all the grunt work undertaken by ACORN, MoveOn.org, and dozens of other left-leaning groups.

Dem politicians are entirely out of sync with their dovish rank-and-file and they are hoping that the foot soldiers will have short memories.

In a CBS News poll taken October 3-5 of 808 adults nationwide, 91% of Democrats responded that the results of the war are not worth the lost American lives and other costs, 8% think they are, and 1% are unsure. (Republicans disagree. Sixty-two percent believe the results in Iraq are worth the costs, 26% think they aren’t, and 12% are unsure.)

Hillary and her elected colleagues may be having a great time tap-dancing on the grave of Republican hegemony. But she may have waited too long to leave the prom.

Hillary and Bill have miscalculated the intensity of bad feeling they have engendered against themselves while trying to protect Hillary against charges of being soft on terrorism. In 2004, in spite of having a hack politician burdened with war guilt foisted up on them, many of the people who worked for the Kerry campaign supported him because they believed that the candidate would move to end the war once he took office.

But time has passed and now it’s a minute to midnight. From the hinterlands, the streets, and campuses, patience and tolerance of cowardice are wearing thin. The grass roots want a candidate who has guts, not just guile. Principles, not just polish. The willingness to do what is right, not just what is expedient.

If she really wants to be president, Hillary should take a lesson from the nomination of Harriet Miers -- merely being a woman is no longer qualification enough (if it ever was) to take support for granted when seeking a high position…even from one’s own presumptive supporters.

Friendly fire can be just as deadly as attacks from opponents. Unless Hillary shows some backbone to her base, all it will take to turn Hillary’s inauguration ball gown into tattered rags is one high-profile Democrat who is willing to take a stand against the war.

71 Comments:

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Anonymous Jim Bromley said...

>>> This past weekend, the chatterati TV programs provided stark evidence of the Great Democratic Divide, exposing the strike-slip fault lines of progressive topography with silent tectonics as hawks grate against doves.<<<

Heh, heh, I really like the geological metaphor. Throw in some political dinosaurs and you will have a real electoral Jurassic Park.

>>> If the Republicans are split over the budget deficit and the Miers nomination, Democrats are split over the war in Iraq. Fear stalks the political landscape. The elected Repubs are quaking in fear of indictments. The elected Dems are terrified to hammer out and articulate a positive platform that goes beyond mere opposition.<<<

That's the crux of the matter. I'm glad you put it up-front, although I would have flipped the order in the paragraph. The key sentence is the last one. And doesn't fear always stalk the political landscape? ;-)

>>> The Dem hawks are the unrepentant politicians who voted for the war....

>>> The Dem doves are the little people and their champions like Howard Dean...

>>> The hawks control the political agenda, maintaining hardened positions...

>>> But the doves control the party apparatus and the grass roots....

These four paragraphs are an excellent analysis of the situation, succinctly stated (perhaps a bit too succinctly), and dead-on as far as I can see. You really do lay it out.

>>> Dem politicians are entirely out of sync with their dovish rank-and-file and they are hoping that the foot soldiers will have short memories. <<<

Or just cynically figure they have the only anti-war game in town and that the peaceniks will have to come on board sooner or later.

>>> In a CBS News poll taken October 3-5 of 808 adults nationwide, 91% of Democrats responded that the results of the war are not worth the lost American lives and other costs, 8% think they are, and 1% are unsure. (Republicans disagree. Sixty-two percent believe the results in Iraq are worth the costs, 26% think they aren't, and 12% are unsure.) <<<

That's a very interesting set of facts. The ultimate prize is that 26% share of Republicans who might cross over in the election.

>>> Hillary and her elected colleagues may be having a great time tap-dancing...

>>> Hillary and Bill have miscalculated the intensity of bad feeling they have...

>>>> But time has passed and now it's a minute to midnight....

>>> If she really wants to be president, Hillary should take a lesson...

All very good points, leading up to:

>>> Friendly fire can be just as deadly as attacks from opponents. Unless Hillary shows some backbone to her base, all it will take to turn Hillary's inauguration ball gown into tattered rags is one high-profile Democrat who is willing to take a stand against the war.<<<

It might be her *nomination* ball gown that gets shredded by a strong anti-war candidate if she ignores the rank-and-file, but it will be a Republican hawk that does the honors at inauguration time if she is too dovish and left-leaning on the Iraq mess. I get your point, though, about her absolutely needing the grassroots support in her own party and the folly of either ignoring it or taking it for granted. However, unless she can articulate a viable exit strategy palatable to Republicans, she will repeat Kerry's performance. What she needs, In My Humble Opinion, is a updated, Democratic version of Nixon's "Peace with Honor" (but without the carpet bombing and Cambodian incursions).

I think Hillary's big problem is that she is running from a position of already being in the national spotlight as a senator. It would have been far, far better for her if her power base had come from her being governor of, say, Arizona, and not having been forced to take positions on national issues that would come back to haunt her. In my opinion, her candidacy is as doomed as Kerry's was for this reason.

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Both men and women may have the pressures of maintaining their clothing up-to-date and in time, yet men's style often seems a lot less complicated. Of course, for both genders, clothes and style options could be quite as delicate, and there are many'modern'items that could rapidly become fashion faux pas - who will say they often times see people walking around in 70s flares? On the other side, men's fashion features a few staple items which can exist eternally - which man is going to look out of place with a good-quality, tailored suit, for example? Choose basic cuts, colours and materials and you'll never seem out-of-place.

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